26-07-2021 | 16:40 PM
Afghanistan-Taliban Issues
Context:
India has urged for a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire in Afghanistan. India has also called for renewed efforts to establish enduring peace and stability and end to externally-sponsored terrorism and violence in Afghanistan.
India’s stance on Afghanistan:
At the 9th Heart of Asia Conference in Dushanbe, Tajikistan on 30 March 2021, India asserted that it has been supportive of all efforts being made to “accelerate the dialogue” between the Afghanistan government and the Taliban.
As Taliban controls majority of rural districts and has indirect control over other 33% of the Afghanistan territory, India must ensure that Taliban’s revival will not impact Kashmir.
As China had long ago reached out to the Taliban and Russia has hosted talks between the two sides. So, India has to be more flexible and adapt to the new strategic reality.
Since the fall of the Taliban, India has cultivated deep ties with the Afghanistan, with investments in multiple projects dealing with education, power generation, irrigation and other infrastructure development. Eg: Salma dam, Hospital in Kabul among others.
Recently, India signed an agreement to build the Shahtoot dam near Kabul. Thus, its economic, strategic and security ties could be disrupted if the Taliban were to take over. But non-engagement can also be counter-intuitive.
The first batch of vaccines Afghanistan got was from India.
Relevance of Afghanistan for India
India’s interest in Afghanistan relates to its need to reduce Pakistani influence in the region.
Afghanistan is tied to India’s vision of being a regional leader and a great power, coupled with its competition with China over resources.
The pipeline project TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India), which seeks to connect an energy-rich Central to South Asia, will only see the light of the day if stability is established in Afghanistan, and for access to the landlocked Central Asian countries that border Afghanistan.
Economically, it is a gateway to the oil and mineral-rich Central Asian republics.
Afghanistan has also become the second-largest recipient of Indian foreign aid over the last five years.
U.S.- Taliban Peace Deal:
A peace deal between the U.S. Government and the Taliban was signed on 29 February, 2020, which calls for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) troops to leave Afghanistan.
The withdrawal of US troops along with bringing down NATO or coalition troop numbers within 14 months from when the deal was signed.
Background:
In the 1990s and 2000s, India was steadfastly opposed to any dealings with the Taliban. But its position seems to have evolved over the years.
In 2018, when Russia hosted Afghan and Taliban talks, India had sent a diplomatic delegation to Moscow.
In September 2020, at the intra-Afghan peace talks in Doha, India reaffirmed the long-held Indian position that any peace process should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.
India also had no role in the agreement signed between USA and Taliban in Doha, although security implications on India was high if a regime change was to happen in Afghanistan.
India’s Diplomatic Way Ahead
As per foreign policy specialists, India must play a role in the Intra-Afghan talks. India has been excluded from the Afghanistan peace process many times including the recent meeting (6+2+1 grouping).
A Taliban government in Kabul does not augur well for India’s security in the Kashmir region. It may become a launch pad for violent attacks on India.
IC-814 hijacking should be a reminder for India that corrective actions are needed and to open diplomatic channels with Taliban, as it is getting powerful in the region. Else, India will find itself isolated and pushed to the margins in West Asia.
India’s Strategic interests converges with Afghanistan, especially economic and geostrategic interests.
Conclusion:
India joining the peace process could strengthen the hands of the Afghanistan government, which is negotiating from a position of weakness.
India by using its regional clout as well as its deep ties with both the U.S. and Russia, should work for peace in both inside the Afghanistan and in the region.
